22 September 2009

PECOTA v. Pipeline -- the rundown

Back in March I ran through the Royals' PECOTA stat predictions as listed by Baseball Prospectus and then put my own predictive spin on them. I gave the 50th percentile (most likely) projection as a solid average of what the system said....here's how it's shaken out.


Miguel Olivo
PECOTA: .240 BA/.274 OBP/.420 SLG, 9 HR, 37 RBI, 10 BB/68 K with average to slightly sub-par defense

Pipeline (March 2 post): I take the over. 60th percentile projection of .250/.284/.422, 10 HR, 40 RBI sounds more like it, but I'd go with like 13 HR, 49 RBI.

Actual: .251/.291/.503, 23 HR, 64 RBI -- wow, both off, but I was closer, almost got the BA/OBP. Pipeline 1, PECOTA 0

John Buck
PECOTA: .227/.298/.383, 8 HR, 34 RBI, 23 BB/64 K with slightly worse defense than Olivo

Pipeline: This looks about right, although I'd look for a lower OBP. I say around a .285 OBP, 5 HR.

Actual: .235/.293/.476, 8 HR, 34 RBI -- a couple weeks left and PECOTA's HR/RBI totals are right on. I'll give this one to the system, but it's a hollow victory. Buck stinks. PECOTA 1, Pipeline 1

Brayan Pena
PECOTA: .258/.307/.354, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 21 BB/38 K with defense way worse than Buck

Pipeline: I say if Brayan gets a shot he exceeds this, maybe hits his 60th percentile of .263/.313/.364.

Actual: .270/.314/.447, 5 HR, 15 RBI. Looks like I was right on with OBP, but not so much with the slugging %. Still, this one goes to me. Pipeline 2, PECOTA 1


Mike Jacobs
PECOTA: .254/.313/.449, 17 HR, 65 RBI, 33 BB/87 K with craptastic first base defense

Pipeline: I'd say only 17 HR from Jacobs would be a disappointment for anybody who supported Dayton Moore's move to bring him in. I'd think those people would be expecting at least his 60th percentile numbers of .261/.322/.469 with HR numbers closer to his 75th percentile projection of 23 with 77 RBI. Even his 90th percentile projection gives him only 28 HR. Of course, that would be a pretty high total for KC in recent history. I say his BA and OBP projections from the 50 percent projection hold up with 23 HR, 70 RBI.

Actual: .230/.303/.408, 18 HR, 58 RBI, 40 BB/123 K -- I don't think anybody wins here. We all lose. It's the Price is Right thing, you've all overbid. OK, I'll give it to PECOTA. 2-2.

Billy Butler
PECOTA: .290/.351/.456, 14 HR, 68 RBI, 41 BB/63 K, system didn't even give him a 1B projection defensively
I'll take the over and shoot for a line of .303/.361/.465, 17 HR, 68 RBI

Actual: .300/.358/.487, 18 HR, 85 RBI, plus gonna hit 50 2B....Man, I almost nailed this one, still have a shot on the BA/OBP...see? some of us saw this coming, we just never knew if it'd get here. Pipeline 3, PECOTA 2

Ryan Shealy
PECOTA: .215/.288/.374, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 35 BB/112 K with Butler level D at first
I'd say his 75th percentile projection of .236/.313/.425 with 18 HR and 64 RBI would be more in his reach,

Actual: injuries crapped out his season. Nobody wins, still 3-2 Pipeline.

Kila Ka'aihue

PECOTA: .226/.325/.377, 14 HR, 57 RBI, 62 BB/95 K with more pisspoor defense at first.
Everybody would love it if he came up and hit his 90th percentile projection of .263/.368/.450, 20, 74.

Actual: He never got a shot. I love this organization. My dark horse of J.R. House was also so dark he didn't even play that great at Omaha, so I should get some kind of points deducted for that, but I'll be nice to myself and not do that.


Alberrrrrrto Callassssspo
PECOTA: .267/.330/.355, 2 HR, 28 RBI, smack dab average D

Pipeline: I'd take these numbers from Alberto at the keystone.

Actual: .298/.351/.450, 10 HR, 69 RBI -- I didn't really differ, so no point awarded. Can't say he's been average defensively, and not in a Can't say he's been average defensively! way

Willie Bloomquist
PECOTA: .246/.321/.292, 0 HR, 12 RBI, subpar defense but they've got him as a CF.

Pipeline: PECOTA has the feeling Bloomquist's OBP is returning to the norm. I have a hard time disagreeing. Millions well spent.

Actual: .269/.314/.364, 4 HR, 29 RBI -- again, no difference, no point. Still glad in a sarcastic way KC gave him millions of dollars.


Alex Gordon
PECOTA: .259/.343/.461, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 59 BB/122 K, slightly subpar, basically average D at third.
I say he outdoes it to the tune of .270/.350/.480 with similar HR and RBI totals.

Actual: .227/.333/.359, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 19 BB/33 K, boy did I have a rosie outlook, but he did get hurt. PECOTA wins by default, 3-3.


Mike Aviles
PECOTA: .265/.306/.403, 11 HR, 57 RBI, 26 BB/68 K with decent D at short

Pipeline: I expect closer to his 75th percentile projection of .282/.324/.438, 14, 65 and even that isn't a great year.

Actual: .183/.208/.250, 1 HR, 8 RBI, he tried to play through an elbow injury and it cost him the season. Another one to PECOTA by default, 4-3.

Tony Pena Jr. (just for kicks)
PECOTA: .231/.261/.303, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 7 BB/37 K, roughly average D at short
These are like TPJ on 'roids. I don't see it. Lasik surgery or no.

Actual: .098/.132/.118, 0 HR, 2 RBI, bat finally taken out of his useless grasp, TPJ took us to new levels of home plate suckitude this season. Good luck as a pitcher, tho. I get a point, just for PECOTA's stupidity, 4-4.


David DeJesus
PECOTA: .275/.339/.395, 7 HR, 48 RBI, 40 BB/67 K, solid defense even tho they have him in center
Surely if healthy he can hit his 60th percentile projection of .282/.347/.409, 8, 52.

Actual: .281/.346/.436, 13 HR, 70 RBI, 49 BB/86 K -- another one I almost nailed, although I still messed up the SLG. Pipeline up, 5-4.

I'll leave out Shane Costa too. He had a lost 2009.


Covelli "Coco" Crisp
PECOTA: .265/.328/.381, 6 HR, 36 RBI, 32 BB/58 K, 15 SB, solid D in center
I call at least the 60th percentile #s of .269/.333/.389, 6, 37 for Coco. Even that would be a dropoff from recent years. He can almost surely get to his 75th percentile #s of .275/.340/.401, 7, 38, right? I mean, c'mon...he's getting to play full-time again, with not much competition in the spot, no pressure in KC. If he's healthy, he outperforms that projection easily, I say.

Actual: .228/.336/.378, 3 HR, 14 RBI, got hurt and shut down, PECOTA gets this one, although we'll never know how the final numbers may have shaken out. 5-5, even though I did give the "if healthy" caveat.

Mitch Maier
PECOTA: .235/.284/.362, 7 HR, 37 RBI, 22 BB/68 K, decent D
This may be about right for his projection, tho. I say 60th percentile #s of .242/.292/.376, 7, 40, are about his peak this year.

Actual: .245/.333/.347, 3 HR, 27 RBI, 37 BB/63 K, I was closer, but he blew my OBP projection out of the water. I get this one, 6-5.


Jose Guillen
PECOTA: .269/.310/.425, 13 HR, 66 RBI, 22 BB/84 K, subpar D
I bet his '09 is closer to his 50th percentile projection, tho. I say .275/.320/.440, 17 HR, 75 RBI, which is pretty much his 60th percentile projection. And most would likely be disappointed with that. He has almost an equal chance of collapsing (33%) as improving (39%) under PECOTA in '09.

Actual: .242/.314/.367, 9 HR, 40 RBI, he played this year with a big fork sticking out of his back, but hey, we still get to pay him $12 million to stink it up in 2010! Hooray! We're tied again, 6-6. Good call on the collapse chances, PECOTA.

Mark Teahen
PECOTA: .260/.328/.401, 10 HR, 54 RBI, 43 BB/103 K, subpar D
This projection seems likely, with more K's, tho. Maybe a slighly lower BA.

Actual: .274/.328/.411, 11 HR, 46 RBI, 34 BB/118 K, played mostly 3B this year because of Gordon's injury. PECOTA pretty much nailed this one, it's up, 7-6. And we're through with the position players. I'm holding my own here.


Gil Meche
PECOTA: 11-11, 4.21 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 185 1/3 IP, 67 BB/146 K
Pipeline (March 3 post):
I say he outdoes this....16 wins, 3.95 ERA, WHIP about same as projected, IP same, maybe 155 Ks

Actual: 6-10, 5.09, 1.56 WHIP, 129 IP, 58 BB/95 K, Meche didn't have a very good season, but neither did many Royals. PECOTA is pulling away, 8-6.

Zack Greinke
PECOTA: 11-10, 3.98 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 178 IP, 53 BB/151 K
The 75th percentile projection of a 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 13 wins sounds nice and I think is within reach.

Actual: 14-8, 2.14, 1.06 WHIP, 210 1/3 IP, 44 BB/224 K, I get this one, even though I underestimated what he'd do, too, 8-7 PECOTA.

Brian Bannister
PECOTA: 6-9, 5.32 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 130 1/3 IP, 44 BB/74 K
I'd like to see him get his 75th percentile projection of a 4.67 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 7 wins, but even that isn't exactly a stellar line. He's capable, tho.

Actual: 7-12, 4.73, 1.37, 154 IP, 50 BB/98 K -- wow, another one for me, 8-8.

Kyle Davies
PECOTA: 4-8, 5.70 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 99 1/3 IP, 46 BB/62 K
I'm staying away from a prediction here. He could do this, he could step up. Like with Bannister, even his 75th percentile projection is a 4.57 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 6 wins. God, you'd hope he can hit that.

Actual: 8-9, 5.27, 1.52, 123 IP, 66 BB/86 K, I didn't play that round, but he couldn't hit that.

Luke Hochevar
PECOTA: 6-9, 5.15 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 119 2/3 IP, 45 BB/71 K

Pipeline: This is a key year for Hoch. He needs to take a step forward if the team wants to go anywhere higher than third place in the AL Central. This line isn't enough of a step forward. His 90th percentile projection of 9 wins, 3.78 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 91 Ks would be. I say he outdoes this, maybe 9 wins, a 4.40 ERA, 1.39 WHIP. More Ks.

Actual: 7-10, 5.79, 1.40, 38 BB/97 K, got the K's part right, almost nailed the WHIP and he can maybe get to 9 wins. I say this one's a push. Still 8-8.


Joakim Soria
PECOTA: 4-5, 33 saves, 3.26 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 63 IP, 22 BB/62 K
I say he racks up more than 33 saves as long as he's healthy. I say 45 saves, 2.40 ERA, 1.10 WHIP.

Actual: 3-2, 27 SV, 2.36, 1.10 WHIP, 49 2/3 IP, 16 BB/67 K
, PECOTA was predicting a down year and it has been in some ways for Soria. Although PECOTA was closer on saves, I was on the ERA and WHIP, so I get this one, 9-8 Pipeline!

Juan Cruz
PECOTA: 3-3, 4.32 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 58 1/3 IP, 33 BB/69 K
I say Juan is a quality set up guy for Soria, fills Ramon Ramirez's role well, and exceeds the 50th percentile projection here. How about a 3.50 ERA, 1.32 WHIP?

Actual: 3-4, 6.17, 1.50 WHIP, 46 2/3 IP, 27 BB/35 K, where'd the K's go? I blew this one, we're tied again, 9-9.

Kyle Farnsworth
PECOTA: 2-3, 4.44 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 54 2/3 IP, 23 BB/50 K
I think this could be right on the money for Farnsworth.

Actual: 1-4, 4.63, 1.42 WHIP, 35 IP, 12 BB/37 K, man, the system nailed the WHIP. No point awarded as I agreed here. Thank God because of injuries he was only able to do so much damage at KC.

John Bale
PECOTA: 2-4, 5.70 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 50 IP, 19 BB/34 K
I do think if he can pitch in KC he'll do better than this out of the pen, say at least a 4.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, but that isn't saying much, is it?

Actual: 0-1, 5.93, 1.86, 27 1/3 IP, 18 BB/23 K, PECOTA gets the point because I was dumb enough to make a favorable Bale prediction. 10-9 PECOTA.

Robinson Tejeda
PECOTA: 3-5, 5.06 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 70 1/3 IP, 38 BB/59 K
Tejeda seemed to figure something out in KC last season, but I guess this season will tell. I think this projection is a little high, although everywhere else he's pitched in the majors he's struggled.

Actual: 4-1, 2.94, 1.19, 64 1/3 IP, 40 BB/79 K, I don't get the point because I didn't have the cojones to come out and say he should be better. He looks like the early favorite 2010 candidate for the Kyle Davies Award to get hyped then fall on his face.

Ron Mahay
PECOTA: 2-2, 4.79 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 43 1/3 IP, 21 BB/33 K
I say he outdoes this line, but I don't know by how much.

Actual: 1-1, 4.79, 1.79, 41 1/3 IP, 19 BB/34 K, damn, PECOTA was right on here, other than WHIP. 11-9 PECOTA.

Lenny DiNardo
PECOTA: 3-5, 6.41 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 70 2/3 IP, 29 BB/35 K
Could be a dark horse pen candidate, and I think he'll rebound to out-do this line.

Actual: 0-1, 8.22, 2.34 WHIP, 15 1/3 IP, 10 BB/6 K, hasn't gotten the shot I thought he might, but Boston made mincemeat of him. I guess I should give PECOTA a point here, too, even though it's kind of an incomplete. 12-9 PECOTA.

So in the end, PECOTA pulls away. But I think I did well enough to prove my point that the system is a tad bit harsh on the Royals each year. It was by no means a resounding victory for the system. But it shows it's nothing to disregard, either.


Jeff Parker said...

I didn't play that round, but he couldn't hit that.

LOL, nice.

I disagree with you on Tejeda thoughas 2007 is the only bad year he's had. His career ERA minus that season is 3.68. Davies was the opposite, he has had only one above average season. Still sample size all that I know. I think Tejeda's K rate is what separates him from Davies.

Ken said...

I hope Tejeda gets hyped going into 2010 and lives up to it. I'm just saying he's struggled as a starter in the past. Like I said, I wish I'd had the guts to give him more favorable numbers in my 2009 prediction, but I didn't. We'll see how next March/April shake out.

benfunke said...

I don't think you can count Gordon's and Crisp's stats due to their limited AB's, so PECOTA shouldn't get points for those.