Royals on the Farm 2008 preview

**** Well well well, so far so good for the Royals. An opening day win thanks to some solid bullpen work from Leo and Soria, and, shortly before I typed this, a 2-0 lead in the 6th today thanks in part to Jose Guillen's first big hit for KC and an RBI double from Professional Hitter Billy Butler. I'll take 2 out of 3 in every series this year, thanks. Brian Bannister is looking good today. That could be the steal trade of the last 15 years for KC if he can keep this up. He's smart enough to get it done.....UPDATE: OK, it's now through 7 1/2 and PHBB just pulled a Berroa and made the third out at third, but only after knocking in a run. Bannister has his 2-hit shutout rolling thru 7. Will he be back for the 8th???.....ANOTHER UPDATE: Answer is no....Babyface Leo Nunez comes on to get Ivan Rodriguez to ground into a DP to face the minimum in the 8th. Now who pitches the 9th, Soria or Nunez? Maybe Yabuta?.........FINAL UPDATE: Ah yeah it's Soria time for KC, although I question putting him in with a 4-run lead.....let the man rest. Ramon Ramirez can't use the work? A 4-run cushion isn't enough for Yabuta to make his debut? Soria goes on to give up a 2-out single to Renteria (who had all 3 Tiger hits) but strikes out the side otherwise. Let's go wire to wire in the AL Central! That thumping sound you hear is also me kicking myself for not getting Brian Bannister in any of my fantasy leagues.

The minor league season is upon us, starting with games Thursday for the AAA, AA, A-Advanced and A-ball affiliates, so another year of Royals on the Farm reports is also here. Hope everybody is still along for the ride. If you want to follow along on the Schematic for the purposes of this preview, feel free, as it's up to date as far as I have found. As far as a bird's-eye view of the system, it looks better than any start of the season I can remember since I started these reports back in 2005. Back then, even into '06 and '07, there seemed to be a lot of dead-weight, filler-type players in especially the upper levels. Those type of players aren't completely gone, I would say, but they've definitely been thinned down. The brightest spot from my standpoint is that there are at least a couple interesting players to watch at each level. We're actually in mid-double figures of guys at Omaha who could maybe get a pre-September call to KC at some point. It's kinda sad that it makes me feel good about that, because that should probably be the norm, but trust me, it hasn't been in the recent past.

AAA -- Omaha

Position players to watch: 1B Ryan Shealy almost made the KC roster coming out of ST but needs to prove he can get the job done at the plate again in AAA after an injury-plagued 2007.....2B/SS Mike Aviles improved with both the glove and bat in 2007 and maybe should have gotten a September call-up but didn't. His problem is more that he's blocked by Esteban German and, now, Alberto Callaspo, at KC, so one of them is gonna have to go (likely German) for Aviles to get a shot....LF Chris Lubanski didn't do so hot in his first shot at AAA last season (.636 OPS in 49 games) but is back and is only 23, so still has some shelf life left. He reportedly has some defensive issues to work out, however, to get past Mitch Maier, Shane Costa and others in the OF depth chart.....CF Maier looked good defensively in the limited action I saw from KC on TV in spring training but will need to pick it up with the bat more to get to KC....RF Costa has had his chances in KC but hasn't hit, but has blistered AAA pitching the last couple years. At this point I think he's possible trade fodder. If Lubanski hits well, he could take Costa's 40-man spot.....Matt Tupman and Damaso Espino should duke it out for the C spot, and Ken Huckaby (filler) is also in the mix, who knows for how long....Jason Smith and Angel Berroa should fill out the other infield spots....1B Mike Stodolka may see good time at first if and when Shealy comes back to KC. I don't think many expected what Stodolka has done since switching to first from pitcher a couple years ago. The fact he has hit well enough to get to AAA amazes me, although at 27 he's no longer a "prospect" really. I'd love to see him in KC in September, if only for a "cup of coffee." By the way, he's also the only Omaha bench player who isn't 30 years old or older.

Pitchers to watch: Golden Boy Luke Hochevar will start the opener for Omaha and, if things pan out, will likely be the #5 starter in KC by June or July. He probably should have made the rotation out of spring but the Royals have to keep service time issues in mind.....Kyle Davies is also in the rotation after getting beaten out by Brett Tomko for the #5 rotation slot. He got pounded in KC last year and didn't exactly cruise this spring so I wouldn't mind seeing him stay in Omaha a while....Matt Wright and Tyler Lumsden are also in Omaha's rotation....I really thought Wright would get a better look in ST but was one of the first cuts, plus he has options and no 40-man slot yet. Lumsden stunk up the place last season but is still only 25 and there's much room for improvement.....Joel Peralta and Neal Musser start the season in Omaha's pen but I'm sure will be on the Omaha-KC shuttle quite a bit.....same with Ryan Braun, although he may have a tougher time getting back to KC.....Chin-Hui Tsao, Jorge de la Rosa and Hideo Nomo will also start out in the Omaha pen and I have no idea how they'll do. It could be comeback city or it could be very hard to watch. Rotoworld is reporting today de la Rosa may be the PTBNL in the Ramon Ramirez trade.

Overview: The O-Royals finished over .500 last year but I think have a deeper lineup this season. There is no Billy Butler, but Omaha should have enough offense to hang in the PCL. The rotation will be the key to the season, as the Royals will have to also probably figure out who can be plugged in if and when Hochevar moves up to KC. Nashville (Brewers AAA) had a good team last year in the division, as did Iowa (Cubs), so the O-Royals will likely have their work cut out for them. All in all I'd predict a slightly better 2008 than '07 for the O-Royals. The Royals open the season with a 4-game home set versus the Albuquerque Isotopes (AAA Marlins). The 'Topes roster features Angels castoff OF Dallas McPherson, OF John Gall (former good hitter in Cards' organization), and top 10 organizational prospect righty Eulogio De La Cruz.

AA Northwest Arkansas

Position players to watch: First off, I almost typed AA Wichita like I'm used to doing....gonna be hard to keep myself from doing that this year....The new Naturals are a mish-mash of last year's Wranglers plus the fruits of a good Wilmington team from 2007.....main benefit is in the pitching department but I'll get to that in a sec....1B Kila Kaaihue gets yet another shot at AA, altho he did do better in '07 (.806 OPS in 70 games) than he did in '06, when the numbers showed he looked lost at the plate....the rest of the Nats infield is also intriguing with 2B Marc Maddox coming off a nice '07, although he didn't exactly rake at Wilmington (.648 OPS in 405 ABs); SS Angel Sanchez, the 25-year-old prospect coming off arm surgery that cost him the '07 season after he hit for a .692 OPS in AA in '06; and 3B Mario Lisson, who strikes out a lot but has some solid speed and is on the right track at 24....Geraldo Valentin returns in the outfield from the '07 Wichita team along with Wilmington promotees (is that a word?) CF Jose Duarte (good arm, speedy, great D) and RF Brian McFall (power bat, also solid arm from what I've read), so that's a promising part of the roster....29-year-old Juan Richardson was brought in to fill out the roster and has a solid bat, although he Ks a lot....not a lot on the bench, as catchers Kiel Thibault and Cody Clark vie with Adam Donachie for the starting spot....utility guy Irving Falu brings his speed and glove back and OF Ovandy Suero comes over from, surprise, the Braves organization after missing the U.S. 2007 season. He has speed to burn, but, as with others on the roster, also swings and misses a lot.

Pitchers to watch: The staff at Springdale appears to be loaded....rotation includes righty Dan Cortes and lefty Rowdy Hardy, who commanded most of the minor-league spotlight for the Royals last season....40-man roster guys and righties Carlos Rosa and Julio Pimentel should also see rotation time. Rosa lit up Wilmington last season but scuttled at AA, although he did pick it up in the late going. Pimentel also pitched well at Wilmington and is getting his first taste of AA.....Righty Blake Johnson will round out the rotation if he doesn't go to Cincinnati to round out the Brad Salmon trade. He also found success in the Carolina League in 2007 and is getting a taste of AA....the Naturals' pen features 2007 Royals AA pitcher of the year Dusty Hughes, although I figured he would have at least returned to the rotation if not moved up to AAA....pitchers Matt Peterson and Julio De La Cruz are imports from (most recently) the Pirates and Phillies organizations....Patrick Green, Devon Lowery, Kyle Crist, Roman Colon and Paul Mildren also start the season at Northwest Arkansas and pose a mixed bag of expectations.

Overview: It can't get much worse than it was in 2007 for the Royals' AA squad with a lame-duck team knowing it was the last season in Wichita. That mixed with a roster that didn't seem to improve a great deal as the season progressed meant a last-place season. This year should be looking up as the Naturals feature an apparently strengthened lineup and a cadre of pitchers seasoned in the Carolina League. Pitching and speed may be strengths along with defense. It can't get much worse than last season so I'll go out on a limb here and say the Naturals turn it around for a close-to-.500 if not better record. The Naturals start their official existence with a 3-game set at the San Antonio Missions (AA Padres). I assume Cortes will start the opener but the team site has no one named to start yet. The Missions' roster features top SD prospects righty Will Inman, 1B Kyle Blanks, OF Chad Huffman and lefty Steve Garrison.

A-Advanced Wilmington

Position players to watch: The Blue Rocks' lineup features a batch of players from last season's paltry Burlington Bees lineup, although hopefully they hit better in Carolina League play than they did in the Midwest League.....Matt Morizio and Jeff Howell are in the catcher mix although neither really stood out consistently in 2007. Both have some pop but don't really hit for average....David Wood is intriguing in making the jump from the Rookie Arizona League to A-Advanced. He should man the 1B position with Miguel Vega on the DL to start the season, and if he hits well, he should be able to hold off Vega. He hit .318 with an .862 OPS in the thin Arizona air last season.....Kurt Mertins and Josh Johnson are in the 2B mix along with Chris McConnell and Jeff Bianchi in the shortstop mix -- none of the 4 hit for an OPS over .700 last season but McConnell has gotten a solid defensive rep.....switch-hitting Anthony Seratelli made a splash by hitting for a .966 OPS at Idaho Falls last season as a non-drafted free agent and has also made the jump to Wilmington. We'll see how much of his numbers were due to the hitter-friendly Pioneer League.....IF Wilver Perez had a hot bat in '07 at Wilmington but played only 54 games due to injury....the outfield mix includes Joe Dickerson, who was among the best hitters at Burlington last year (not saying much, but still), speedy CF Derrick Robinson, who didn't fare well at the plate last year in Burlington and struck out 100 times in 407 ABs, and likely split time between corner OF Brett Bigler and OF Jarrod Dyson....Dyson spent most of 2007 on the bereavement list.

Pitchers to watch: The Rocks' rotation is touch-and-go.....Blake Wood and Mario Santiago are the best returning starters on the roster with solid stints last season mainly at Burlington....the other two possibly key guys were hurt in varied extents last season in righties Chris Nicoll and Matt Kniginyzky....Jason Godin and Everett Teaford are also in the rotation mix, and neither exactly prospered in 2007.....lefty Gilbert de la Vara takes over as one of the best closer prospects in the organization with the departure of Gabe DeHoyos in the rule 5 draft....righty Greg Holland is also intriguing out of the pen after being named Idaho Falls pitcher of the year in 2007....righty Tyler Chambliss showed flashes in 2007 and is also in the pen with Henry Barrera, Aaron Hartsock and Russ Haltiwanger.

Overview: With most of the roster moving up from Burlington after struggling in 2007, the same struggle might be expected of the Blue Rocks in 2008. Wood, Seratelli and Dickerson will have to inject some life into the offense and the Royals need someone to emerge from the middle infield morass to claim the spots at the plate. The pitching staff is iffy with injury concerns and Wood and Santiago need to prove last year's performances weren't of the fluke variety. From what I read, Kniginyzky pitched well this spring and the team will need both him and Nicoll to rebound well. I expect Wilmington to drop off as the Carolina League appeared tougher than the Midwest League last year besides being a level up, so unfortunately I have to predict a sub-.500 season for the Rocks. They start their season Friday with the first of 4 at home versus the Myrtle Beach Pelicans (A-Adv. Braves). The Pelicans roster most importantly includes OF prospect Gorkys Hernandez (one of the fruits of the Edgar Renteria trade) as well as Braves' hopefuls righty Tommy Hanson, SS Brandon Hicks and C Tyler Flowers. I assume Wood or Santiago gets the first start for the Rocks, but it could be Kniginyzky.

A Burlington (IA)

Position players to watch: The Bees' lineup is very intriguing as most of the cream of last year's rookie league organizational crop rose to the Midwest League for 2008....leading the pack, of course, is SS Mike Moustakas in his first taste of full-season ball after hitting .293 with an .822 OPS in 11 games at Idaho Falls last season. His job is to prove he can keep hitting while also playing shortstop adequately enough to stay at the position and not move to RF, 1B or 2B....1B Clint Robinson was the toast of Idaho Falls as the Pioneer League MVP by hitting .336 with a .981 OPS in 67 games and should add some potency to the middle of the Bees' lineup....Todd Balduf should hold down the catcher position although Ryan Eigsti is on the roster with Nick Doscher on the DL to start the '08 campaign....the other starting infield positions will likely come down to Alwin Perez and Jason Taylor. Taylor was KC's second round pick between Hochevar and Blake Wood in 2006 and hit for a .698 OPS that summer in the Arizona League before taking 2007 off to deal with "personal issues," so his return to the fold makes for a good storyline for 2008.....IFs Antonio Jimenez, Shawn Hayes and Zach Evangelho will probably come off the bench. Hayes suffered an injury plagued 2007 and didn't see much action....all four OFs on the roster have potential led by 2007 5th rounder CF Adrian Ortiz, who hit .326 with speed but not enough plate discipline in 61 games at Idaho Falls.....OF David Lough played only 24 games at Rookie Burlington (NC) last season but hit .337 with an .857 OPS....OF Wilson Tucker hit for a combined .853 OPS at Rookie Burlington and Idaho Falls and was player of the year at Burlington before hitting for a .930 OPS in 15 games at Idaho Falls.....OF Jamar Walton is the lone returnee from 2007 but I'm not sure why as he hit for a decent .752 OPS in 54 games last season. Hopefully he can stay in the mix.

Pitchers to watch: The rotation has some potential to be exceptional as Zach Peterson, Joe Augustine, Eduardo Paulino and Matt Mitchell all had super 2007s.....Peterson came in as a non-drafted free agent and set a Pioneer League record with 11 straight Ks in an August game versus Billings. He finished with a .234 OAV in 56 IP along with a WHIP right at 1 with a stellar 67 Ks and only 8 BB....Augustine, another non-drafted free agent, posted a sub-1 WHIP, 3/1 K/BB ratio and .199 OAV in 45 2/3 IP while leading the rookie B-Royals.....Paulino's ERA wasn't spectacular at 4.86 but his WHIP was just over 1 and he posted a .212 OAV for the B-Royals in 53 2/3 IP.....Mitchell proved to be a middle-round success for the Royals as the 14th rounder posted a 1.80 ERA, just over 1 WHIP and .183 OAV as the AZL Royals pitcher of the year with nearly 3/1 K/BB ratio as an 18-year old....the best returning relief guy is probably southpaw Anthony Bradley, who posted a sub-1 WHIP and .183 OAV along with nearly a 4/1 K/BB ratio for the B-Royals as their pitcher of the year (although I thought Augustine got jobbed at the time). Actually he might be in the rotation mix as Peterson, Augustine, Paulino and Mitchell are all righties....righty Alex Caldera makes his full-season debut and righty Dan Gutierrez and Ed Cegarra return from last year's Bees staff....lefty Ben Swaggerty should be another good arm out of the bullpen as he had a .225 OAV and more than 3/1 K/BB ratio for the IF Chukars in '07....Henry Arias, Juan Abreu and Yensi Lopez round out the pen.

Overview: I'm excited to see how the Bees do in 2008. The lineup is full of guys I want to see more of -- Moustakas, Robinson, Tucker, Lough, Taylor, Walton.... plus the rotation should be fun to follow. I also expect an appearance from '07 draftee lefty Dan Duffy at some point in Burlington. The bullpen may have some question marks but, after the Bees finished 16 games below .500 last season, I expect that result not to repeat itself in 2008. The Bees may not contend for a MWL title but should definitely be in the hunt. They open the '08 season Thursday with the start of a 4-game home set versus the Peoria Chiefs (A Cubs). The Chiefs' roster includes manager Ryne Sandberg and Cubs prospects C Josh Donaldson and righty Ryan Acosta, but unfortunately no IF Josh Vitters for an early-season Vitters/Moustakas throwdown.


That's your top four levels. Previews of the rookie leagues will be on the way in June after the draft and when rosters are settled. Your first RotF report is slated for Friday. Play ball!