The Pipeline's Top 20 Royal prospects 2008

The promise of improvement in Kansas City in 2008 has turned into just another year of September malaise among Royals fans, but if the season in the minors showed anything, it showed that help may be on the way. Not necessarily in AAA Omaha, however, as this year's Pipeline Top 20 prospects list includes only three players from this year's Omaha roster....one, Kila Ka'aihue, was only a midseason addition, and another, OF Chris Lubanski, has dropped a couple spots from where he was last season on the list. The other, P Carlos Rosa, pitched great in NW Arkansas, got an early season promotion to Omaha, then hit the KC bullpen, then bounced back to Omaha and lost the last chunk of the season to forearm soreness. AA Northwest Arkansas has a few prospects with promise, but the main chunk of players on this list are in A-ball either in Wilmington or Burlington. I put on one or two from rookie ball, but I'd like to see some full season production from most of those guys before putting them in the top 20. From a prospects standpoint, I'd grade out Omaha as a D+ this season, NW Arkansas as a B-, Wilmington as a B, Burlington (IA) as a B+, Idaho Falls as a C, Burlington (NC) as a D, and the AZL as a C.

The list has again changed quite a bit from last season. Last year's #1, P Billy Buckner, who probably should have been lower on the list, was sent to Arizona in the Alberto Callaspo deal, while #2 Luke Hochevar has hit Kansas City's rotation, albeit with mediocre results. #3 Mike Moustakas moves up to the top spot in a move I'm more confident in, while #4 Matt Wright drops out due to age and the fact he was a gas can in Omaha this season, and #5 Justin Huber is now a Padre. Mitch Maier and Rowdy Hardy aged out, although Hardy would have dropped anyway after his numbers came back to earth in AA this season. Geraldo Valentin, who was #16 on last year's list, is also gone as the Royals simply released him this season. All in all, though, I feel this year's top 20 is stronger than last season's group. We've got 11 pitchers, 9 hitters.

Bear in mind most (but not all) of these reports are made sight unseen. They go only as far as stats do, so some intangibles in each player's game aren't taken into account -- good and bad. The cutoff age is 25, and age is set by what it'll be at the end of the MLB season. I vacillated and left SP Luke Hochevar off the list. I can't imagine he'll be out of the KC rotation to start 2009.


1. Mike Moustakas, 3B, 20 (last year: #3) -- hit .272/.337/.468 for an .805 OPS, 77 RS, 25 2B, 3 3B, 22 HR, 71 RBI, 77 RS, 43 BB/86 K, 8/12 SB, 22 E in 126 games and 496 ABs in A Burlington.

*** Moose led the Bees in HR, RBI, hits, doubles, and errors, leading the Royals to make their first defensive move with him to shift him over to third base. His numbers are skewed down somewhat by a slow start as he hit only .190 in 21 April games but hit .303 in July and .330 in August. A cleaner break is shown in his pre- and post-all-star break stats as he hit .228 with a .671 OPS before the break and .321 with a .949 OPS after it. He struggled somewhat in day games (.194 BA with a .659 OPS) and, as he is a lefty batter, against lefties (.239 BA with a .724 OPS) but showed improvement in his numbers as the season progressed, which was great to see as a Royals fan. My money is on him to move up to Wilmington to start 2009, and hopefully if he hits well there in a league that's kinder to hitters, he can maybe move up to NW Arkansas later in the season. He turns 20 Sept. 11.

2. Eric Hosmer, 1B, 18 (last year: N/A) -- played only 3 games at Idaho Falls and got 11 pro ABs

*** The sample size of Hosmer's first taste of professional baseball was small but he slapped up an OPS over 1.000 in his 11 ABs with the rookie ball Chukars before getting pulled out of the lineup because his agent, Scott Boras, dicked around with Pedro Alvarez and the Pirates. As in 2007 with Moustakas, the Royals drafted a Boras client early, and as usual, he didn't sign until 10 minutes before the deadline so the Royals didn't get a lot of game experience for their #1 draftee again. Hosmer was ranked as one of the best if not THE best HS bat in the draft pool, so I guess we'll have to wait until 2009 when I assume, like Moustakas, that Hosmer may get a crack at Midwest League pitching in Burlington.

3. Kila Ka'aihue, 1B, 24 (last year: NR) -- burst onto scene with .314/.463/.624, 26 HR, 79 RBI line in 91 games at NW Arkansas this season and then a .316/.439/.640, 11 HR, 21 RBI line in 33 games at Omaha, led minors with 104 BB and posted an overall .456 OBP

*** Kila was this year's breakout star in the Royals minors after posting an .806 OPS in Wichita in 2007. He raked AA pitching this season and then hit well in a taste of AAA, all the while showing great plate discipline and plenty of power. He struck out more at Omaha but still drew nearly as many walks as Ks after almost doubling up his walks to his Ks in AA. The Royals rewarded him with a September call-up and thus far, he's gotten 4 ABs but picked up his first MLB hit. Going into this season, his younger brother, Kala, who is in the Braves' organization, was the higher touted of the two but Kila turned that around with a blistering year at the plate. Hopefully he earns a spot in the KC lineup to start 2009. Otherwise, I'm sure he'll be at Omaha with a chance to ride the KC-Omaha shuttle.

4. Carlos Rosa, righty SP, 24 (last year: #8) -- was 4-2 with a 1.20 ERA and sub-1 WHIP with 7 BB/42 K in 8 starts and 45 IP in AA, then moved up to Omaha and was 4-3 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 12 BB/44 K in 11 starts and 50 2/3 IP.

*** Rosa was the early story of KC's minors this season by tearing up AA competition, but then had his ups and downs at Omaha. He got a shot at the KC pen but pitched in only 2 games and 3.1 innings before heading back to Omaha. He tried to get back going in the rotation but then struggled with forearm soreness and was shelved for the rest of the year. Keep in mind Rosa only returned last season from Tommy John surgery, so I think it's understandable that he still struggles with stamina over the course of a season. It was probably smart for the organization to shelf him. I'd hope he gets a shot at a #5 KC rotation spot in '09 or the organization may play it safe and start him out at Omaha again.

5. Dan Cortes, righty SP, 21 (last year: #12) -- 10-4, 3.78 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 13 HRA, 55 BB/109 K in 23 starts and 116 2/3 IP at NW Arkansas

*** Cortes has hit the top of several Royals prospects lists and could list higher here, really. I just put him lower than Rosa because Rosa has gotten the job done just as well at a higher level. He was co-leader on the Naturals' staff with 10 wins, and had his dominant moments and other times where control issues from the past seemed to come back on him. His K rate was solid, but he had a small problem with giving up HRs. All in all, it was a good season for Cortes, though, and I would hope he gets a shot at the Omaha rotation to start 2009 with the potential of a call to KC in the cards.

6. Danny Duffy, lefty SP, 19 (last year: #15) -- 8-4, 2.20 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 4 HRA, 25 BB/102 K in 17 starts and 81 2/3 IP at Burlington (IA)

*** Duffy dominated the opposition at Burlington to help lead the team to the playoffs. His K rate was spectacular, and his K/BB was also exceptional. The MWL is a pitcher's league, but these numbers are still outstanding. He won a well-deserved Bees pitcher of the year award. Hopefully this output continues in 2009 in Wilmington. The organization also handled Duffy fairly well by seemingly keeping him on lower pitch counts and monitoring his workload.

7. Joe Dickerson, OF, 22 (last year: #11) -- .297/.376/.442, .818 OPS, 10 2B, 10 3B, 5 HR, 45 RBI, 39 RS, 31 BB/48 K, 24/38 SB, 2 E in 87 games and 310 ABs at Wilmington

*** Dickerson's season was cut short by a finger injury sustained while bunting but the Royals plan to have him play in the Arizona Fall League. He seems to be a solid all-around player, more consistency than flash. He was among the league leaders in hitting while healthy this season and showed some speed on the basepaths, although his basestealing instincts could be better. As noted in today's RotF report, the Rocks could have used Dickerson's consistency at the plate in the playoffs. We'll see how he does next year at AA.

8. Blake Wood, righty SP, 23 (last year: NR) -- 3-2, 2.67 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 3 HRA, 15 BB/63 K in 10 starts and 57 1/3 IP at Wilmington, then 5-7, 5.30 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 7 HRA, 32 BB/76 K in 18 starts and 86 2/3 IP at NW Arkansas

*** Wood dominated the Carolina League then was, as I noted several times, a Jekyll-Hyde pitcher at AA. He could come out and shut down the opposition with more than a K per inning, or he could give up 6 ER over 2 innings. Unfortunately, it was more Hyde than Jekyll at NW Arkansas in his first stint at AA, but Wood did show he has the power stuff to dominate. I'd assume he'll be back in AA to start 2009 atop the NWA rotation. Hopefully we see much more Dr. Jekyll in 2009.

9. Chris Lubanski, OF, 23 (last year: #6) -- .242/.306/.448, .754 OPS, 51 RS, 20 2B, 8 3B, 15 HR, 54 RBI, 38 BB/130 K, 5/6 SB, 6 E in 116 games and 393 ABs at Omaha

*** I dropped Lubanski on the list this year, despite a not awful season for him at Omaha. He missed the last couple games of the season with vision problems, which hopefully factored into the 130 strikeouts this season. If he gets his vision right, maybe that number drops next season and he continues to develop. His batting average hovered in the low .200s all season and he doesn't really get on base to any great extent. He did hit 15 HR for the third straight season and led the team in triples. And he's only 23, which is hard at times to remember because of how fast he's been moved through the system. The Royals will have to consider making room on the 40-man for him or take another chance at him getting rule 5'd, although I think there's little to no chance he'd last an entire season on an MLB roster. I assume he'll be back in the Omaha outfield and maybe in the middle of the order to start 2009 for his second full season in AAA. If vision was part of the problem, hopefully that's taken care of and he starts clicking like he can.

10. Julio Pimentel, righty SP, 23 (last year: #9) -- 7-13, 5.38 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 17 HRA, 52 BB/115 K in 28 starts and 157 1/3 IP at NWA

*** Pimentel was KC's lone representative in the Futures game and led the Naturals in innings pitched, strikeouts, runs allowed, and losses. By his stats you can see he didn't really pitch like a "Futures" guy this season, especially coming off a solid season in Wilmington in 2007. I only dropped him slightly because there aren't any other pitchers in the organization that are definitively better, or at least would be definitively better at the AA level right now. He seems to have the stuff, but had an off year. I expect he'll be back at NWA again in 2009, if the Royals don't feel he can have a shot at Omaha. I wouldn't say he really stepped up to claim that shot this season.

11. Johnny Giavotella, IF, 21 (last year: N/A) -- .299/.355/.421, .776 OPS, 50 RS, 18 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 26 RBI, 25 BB/34 K, 10/17 SB, 13 E in 68 games and 278 ABs at Burlington (IA)

*** Giavotella was KC's fasttrack draftee out of the U of New Orleans in rd 2 this season, and he has fared well for the Bees. I wonder if some fatigue factored in as he was pretty solidly above a .300 batting average until the last couple weeks. It has to hurt to finish at .299 rather than .300...a thousandth of a point means a lot there. He seems to be the prototypical #2 hitter. I figure he'll start '09 in Wilmington with perhaps a shot at moving to NWA if the opportunity arises, or if he hits better in the somewhat more hitter-friendly Carolina League.

12. Jeff Bianchi, IF, 22 (last year: #17) -- .255/.290/.442, .732 OPS, 57 RS, 34 2B, 5 3B, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 20 BB/95 K, 13/17 SB, 7 E in 104 games and 396 ABs at Wilmington

*** Bianchi, who has been injury plagued, I guess you could say, in his career since getting drafted in the second round out of a Pennsylvania high school in 2005, hit only .136 in April and dealt with hamstring issues, as it appeared 2008 would be more of the same. Bianchi came back, however, and hit in the .270s with an over-.800 OPS in May and June. He went through a July swoon in hitting .238 for only a .656 OPS that month but finished strong with a .297 BA and .850 OPS in August to pull his batting average over the .250 mark. He didn't enjoy the friendly confines in Wilmington as he hit only .193 at home. He again showed, though, that when he gets hot at the plate, he puts up numbers in bunches. He ended up leading the Rocks in doubles and RBI and was solid in the field other than a short run of errors in August. On the flip side, though, he never walks and a .290 OBP isn't gonna cut it, especially at higher levels. We'll see if he's in NWA or Wilmington to start 2009.

13. Ed Cegarra, righty SP, 19 (last year: NR) -- 2-4, 2.67 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 4 HRA, 5 BB/53 K in 9 games (8 starts) and 54 IP at Burlington (IA), then 6-7, 4.67 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 15 HRA, 21 BB/59 K in 18 starts and 106 IP at Wilmington

*** Cegarra slapped together a stellar line at Burlington (look at that K/BB!) in 54 innings of work, then moved up to Wilmington and had his ups and downs. The ups included a Carolina League pitcher of the week award and the downs included a couple shellings at the hands of his stiffer competition. When the dust settled, however, Cegarra's numbers weren't horrible at high-A ball. He gave up too too many homers and his K/BB rate wasn't sustained, probably because it's hard to sustain a 10-1 ratio and also because the hitters are slightly wiser in advanced A ball. The gravy on the whole deal is Cegarra hasn't hit his 20th birthday yet. This was kind of a breakout year for the Venezuelan, who I expect to see back in Wilmington to start 2009 with a shot probably to move up to NWA at some point if he handles the league like he showed he could at times this season.

14. Jason Taylor, 1B, 20 (last year: NR) -- .242/.372/.418, .790 OPS, 79 RS, 17 2B, 4 3B, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 81 BB/97 K, 40/54 SB, 20 E in 127 games and 433 ABs in Burlington (IA)

*** Taylor presented possibly the best personal story of 2008 as he came back from personal issues that took him away for the 2007 season, reportedly partially attributable to drug problems, and led the Bees in runs scored, walks (easily) and steals. His best attribute was his ability to get on base as he hit in the low .200s most of the season and still led the team in runs scored. He also showed some pop, so I'd think he'd definitely have 30-30 potential if he can develop more power. This is only his first full season of pro ball. I'd expect to see him in the Wilmington infield in 2009. He split time between third and first this season and got most of his errors at third, so I think the jury is still out somewhat on his D. He also proved durable as he was initially reported to have a broken hand or wrist on a HBP midway through the season but I guess it wasn't as he didn't miss a beat.

15. Chris Hayes, righty RP, 25 (last year: NR) -- 5-2, 1.64 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 12 saves, 4 HRA, 13 BB/39 K in 40 games and 65 2/3 IP at NWA

*** I'd like to see Hayes with more Ks but that's about all you could complain about in his game this season. The submariner was a rock solid closer for the Naturals, and it would be cool in a couple years to see another Quisenberry-type submariner in KC either closing out games or setting up Joakim Soria. Of course, Hayes has yet to tackle Omaha so we'll see how that goes in 2009.

16. Blake Johnson, righty SP, 23 (last year: #13) -- 10-9, 4.85 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 20 HRA, 38 BB/86 K in 26 games (25 starts) and 143 IP in NWA

*** Johnson also drops in the rankings after encountering some struggles at AA, much like Pimentel. The season started with a rumor that Johnson would be shipped to the Reds as the PTBNL in the Brad Salmon deal but that proved untrue. His numbers are actually skewed down a bit by a May in which he posted a 2.50 ERA in 6 starts. Other than that, he didn't post an ERA below 5 in any month. He ended up tying Dan Cortes for the team lead in wins, but also led the team in HR allowed (by 9), and his K rate wasn't anything great. I figure he'll be back in AA to start 2009, as I wouldn't say he earned a slot at Omaha from this line.

17. Mike Montgomery, lefty SP, 19 (last year: N/A) -- 2-1, 1.69 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2 HRA, 12 BB/34 K in 12 games (9 starts) and 42 2/3 IP in the AZL

*** Montgomery started his career as the Royals '08 supplemental round pick (thanks to the signing of David Riske) with a short scoreless inning streak and held on to earn the AZL pitcher of the year award for the Royals' team. He was another highly touted high school pitcher and got off to a solid start as a pro. We'll see if they handle him like Duffy and start him at Burlington (IA) or keep him back and put him in short-season ball again. It could really go either way -- Appalachian League or Midwest League. I wouldn't be surprised if KC used the Duffy template here, tho.

18. Alex Caldera, lefty SP, 23 (last year: NR) -- 12-6, 2.89 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 6 HRA, 36 BB/120 K in 25 starts and 149 1/3 IP at Burlington (IA)

*** Caldera, a 13th round pick out of a California JuCo in 2007, stepped forward to lead the Bees in wins (he led the Royals minors in wins along with Aaron Hartsock at Wilmington), innings pitched, and strikeouts, and also posted a solid K/BB ratio. He was just solid all-around and is Wilmington bound in 2009. There's really nothing to pick at in his stats. For the most part he was consistently good. Only Dan Duffy's awesome year kept him from the Bees pitcher of the year award.

19. Danny Gutierrez, righty SP, 21 (last year: NR) -- 4-4, 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7 HRA, 25 BB/104 K in 19 games (18 starts) and 90 IP at Burlington (IA)

*** Gutierrez was another part of a strong Bees rotation but had less IP than the others due to dealing with some injuries midway through the season. He rebounded to pitch well and post a better than 4-1 K/BB with more than a K per inning. I had hopes for last year's Wilmington rotation in translating to AA this season, and that translation didn't go great for the most part. Hopefully this Burlington rotation translates better to the Carolina League. Gutierrez should be there.

20. Salvador Perez, C, 18 (last year: NR) -- .325/.404/.375, .779 OPS in 13 games at Burlington (NC), then .395/.413/.581, .994 OPS, 5 XBH in 12 games and 43 ABs in Idaho Falls

*** Perez's numbers this year yell "sample size alert" but I can't resist getting a catcher on here that can apparently hit. It can be argued that Wilmington Ps Everett Teaford or Matt Kniginyzky could duke it out for this slot, or maybe Wilmington P Mario Santiago, who was on last year's list. Lots of guys could fit here, but I've got a good feeling about Perez. He's showing some consistent ability at a young age. We'll see next year if it translates upwards, hopefully to the Midwest League.

Honorable mention -- Omaha: IF Angel Sanchez rebounded from elbow surgery but didn't do very well, and he isn't getting any younger. P Devon Lowery is 25 and was Omaha pitcher of the year in a very weak field. He got a September callup. NWA: P Chris Nicoll pitched well in returning from injuries that limited him greatly in 2007 but had a shoulder problem late in the year, so we'll see when he returns. P Gilbert de la Vara also had some nice outings in his second shot at AA, so could be part of the Omaha bullpen in '09. OF Jose Duarte was on last year's list but, despite good defense, doesn't do enough things well to merit a spot on the list this year. I still like his game, but I just wish he was a notch better at getting on base and hitting for power. IF Mario Lisson played well enough to get the 40-man security this year, then proceeded to flop at the plate before rebounding late. The question is if he'll be at NWA, Omaha or out of the organization in 2009. IF Marc Maddox also had his moments this season but I find it hard to get excited about his game. I don't know if it's because he's consistently solid or because he hasn't given me much to get excited about. He just doesn't stick out in my mind. Wilmington: IF Kurt Mertins and IF Josh Johnson had solid years, but, again, nothing spectacular. Johnson can get on base and Mertins has some speed and can hit for contact but neither really steps up consistently enough to merit much attention from my perspective. Mertins will likely get a shot at AA next year, if not both of them. IF Chris McConnell improved at the plate but had a bad defensive year from the looks of the stats (big grain of salt there). OF Derrick Robinson has speed to burn (62 steals) but not much else to brag about from a baseball standpoint. I guess he's OK defensively. OF Adrian Ortiz could have earned a spot low on this list, as he hit for average again, showed he can get on base and stole some bases while playing good D, first at Burlington then in Wilmington. I like his game. I mentioned Teaford and Kniginyzky, who posted similar stats in the rotation with Kniginyzky taking home Rocks pitcher of the year honors. P Greg Holland and P Aaron Hartsock had solid seasons out of the Rocks' pen with Hartsock winning 12 games without a start. Burlington (IA): P Brent Fisher made his return from arm surgery and is slowly rounding back into shape, as are P Luis Cota, who was once a top prospect before suffering an injury of his own, and rule 5 pick P Ray Liotta. All 3 will be players to keep an eye on in 2009. A bevy of other Burlington pitchers did well, but the MWL factor has to come into play somewhere here. I'd rattle off Zach Peterson, Matt Mitchell, Brandon Sisk and Henry Barrera here. IF Kyle Martin had a good year at the plate in hitting over .300 with some pop in the bat. OF Nick Van Stratten also stuck out statistically but didn't get an overwhelming amount of playing time in a somewhat crowded Bees OF. 1B/DH Clint Robinson didn't hit like he did in rookie ball last year but had some good moments and looks to have potential. OFs David Lough and Nick Francis also had their good moments this year. Idaho Falls: C Sean McCauley was the Chukars player of the year but didn't blow me away statistically, although he was better than last season, which was his pro debut. SS J.D. Alfaro could be on this list next year depending on how he does at IF or Burlington (IA). He deserves a shot at the MWL but needs to work on getting on base and some defense. One of the better '08 draftees. OF Patrick Norris didn't hit for average like last season but played good defense and showed some speed and ability to get on base. OF Carlo Testa was another standout among '08 draftees and really rebounded from a slow start to lead the Chukars offensively. IF Devery Van De Keere's hitting exploits were also documented here, but he wasn't consistent enough to challenge for a top 20 spot. Ps Bryan Casey and Ivor Hodgson showed some potential but the Pioneer League is a hitters' league and both guys suffered for that. Burlington (NC): P Barry Bowden was lockdown out of the pen for the B-Royals and earned a well deserved call up to Burlington (IA) for the playoff run. Ps Jacob Rodriguez and John Flanagan also stood out among the B-Royals bullpen staff. I've said it before, I've got a good feeling about Flanagan. Starters Sam Runion, Mike Lehmann and Kelvin Herrera also had good moments in the Appy League in a year that didn't feature a lot for the team. Herrera was another contender for the #20 spot as Burlington's pitcher of the year and has pitched well in his shot at A ball. He's only 18, too, so hopefully that development continues. 1B Josh Vittek was the best hitter for the B-Royals but we'll see if and how he returns in 2009. OF Hilton Richardson had a better '08 than '07 but still didn't post any really flashy numbers. AZL: C Jose Bonilla raked for an OPS over 1.000 but, at 20, is kinda old for that level of ball. Maybe he'll get a shot at A ball in 2009. IF Deivy Batista was a Latin import who stood out among the AZL Royals' hitters, but he's also 20 and didn't stand out like Bonilla did. '08 draftee C Mauricio Matos came on late to post respectable numbers in his first year of pro ball. P Deybi De La Cruz started out hot but struggled down the stretch in the Arizona heat, and P Tyler Sample was a third-rounder this season but struggled at the AZL. I'm pretty sure the Royals were thinking long-term project with Sample, tho. Pitchers Leondy Perez, Jace Smith and Brett Richardson also stood out for the Royals, and Richardson even got a shot at Omaha late.