The Pipeline's Top 20 Royals prospects 2007 edition

What a difference a year makes, in some ways....last year's inaugural Pipeline Top 20 Royals prospects list was extolling the firing of Allard Baird, the Elmer Dessens deal (still looking good for KC, although Odalis Perez has far from impressed) and putting hope upon hope for the day Buddy Bell isn't sitting in the KC dugout with a vacant look on his face while pencilling in Emil Brown, Jason LaRue or Shane Costa in the cleanup spot in the batting order. At last, that day has arrived, as Buddy is stepping down to spend more time with his family after the season concludes. Thank God. I was worried Dayton might actually give the dullard an extension.

The complexion of the top 20 list has changed, definitely. Last year's #1, Alex Gordon, is in the KC lineup nightly and playing solid defense with inconsistent offense. I can't really see him going back to AAA any time soon, though, so he won't be on this list. Neither will #3 Billy Butler, who finally got his shot to perform in KC only because Ryan Shealy got hurt. I also can see him at DH in KC for quite a while, so he's gone from this year's list. Pitchers Leo Nunez and Joakim Soria could also qualify for this list, but will likely stick in KC in one role or another. While some of last year's top 20 have scuttled (Luke Hochevar, Tyler Lumsden, Jeff Bianchi, sigh), others have had lost seasons due to injury (Luis Cota, Chris Nicoll, Brent Fisher) and 1 (#17 P Erik Cordier) isn't part of the organization any more, having been shipped to Atlanta in exchange for mediocre SS Tony Pena Jr.

Somehow, even with the on-field improvement of this year's Royals, it's not as easy for me to be as enthusiastic about the future value in the KC minors. The promotion of Gordon and Butler really thinned out the hitting talent -- there were only 8 hitters on my top 20 last season and the elimination of Gordon, Butler and Stodolka (due to age) cuts the returnees down to 5. Oddly, my list has 10 hitters and 10 pitchers this year, but the increase in hitters is due mainly to the injuries to pitchers that I mentioned earlier and an overall top 20 that's probably not as good as last year's. Billy Buckner and Matt Wright (6 HR game an aberration) have shone through as pitchers at Omaha, but, again, there are no sure-thing hitters (of prospect age) at AAA; AA Wichita, which was a bastion of Royals prospects last year, is now nearly devoid of good prospects; A-Adv. Wilmington has the pitchers but no stellar offensive producers (the last couple months for Brian McFall aside); A Burlington has suffered from injuries and the MWL has had its usual toll on the team's offensive numbers; Rookie Idaho Falls has had the brightest of the offensive prospects along with some good pitching performances; Rookie Burlington, KC's newest minors affiliate in the Appalachian League, also has been a landing zone for some undrafted free agent pitchers who have sparkled with a couple of offensive players showing potential; and the AZL Royals have been a seeding ground for the HS draftees and imports from the Dominican League Royals. Which brings us to the Royals' newest prospect, IF Mike Moustakas, who should soon see his first pro action in the hitting-blessed fields of the Pioneer League. The 11th hour signee enters the organization near the top of this list, as his fellow competitors haven't exactly made themselves stand out this season.

Again, I'll preface this list like I did last season. All stats listed are through Aug. 17. Also, bear in mind most (but not all) of these reports are made sight unseen. They go only as far as stats do, so some intangibles in each player's game aren't taken into account -- good and bad. The cutoff age is 25, which means last year's #20, Mike Stodolka, has aged out of the list, although I hold out hopes for a Rick Ankiel-type future for Mike starting next season in Omaha. He remains near and dear to the Pipeline's heart, I guess I should say, despite his absence from this list.


1. Billy Buckner, SP, 24 (ages are by end of season) (last year: #4) -- 9-7, 3.82 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 81 K/26 BB, 11 HRA in 26 games (15 starts) and 103 2/3 IP at AAA Omaha; 1-3, 4.66 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 13 K/6 BB, 4 HRA in 4 games (3 starts) and 19 1/3 IP at AA Wichita.

*** Buckner has maybe been the only Royals prospect still in the minors to have an outstanding 2007 season. Billy Butler rightfully earned his call-up to KC but, as he isn't on this list, and Alex Gordon has spent all season in KC, and Luke Hochevar has struggled at both AA and AAA, Buckner leap-frogged to the top of the Royals prospect list. Buckner wasn't exactly lighting the Texas League on fire at the start of the year but got promoted to Omaha in exchange for agreeing to move to the bullpen. At Omaha, he did his time in the bullpen and earned a spot start or two, in which he earned a chance at regular starts. Since then, he has contended with Matt Wright for the best ERA and WHIP among Omaha starters. He has improved his K/BB numbers noticeably this season to a better than 3/1 mark at Omaha. His K/9 has been down from '06 but he has shown the most potential of any Royals farmhand other than Wright, and he's a year younger than the Atlanta import. Last year I predicted a September '07 call-up for Billy and, if they can fit him on the 40-man roster, it's still a good possibility. He'll likely contend for a rotation slot in spring training '08.

2. Luke Hochevar, SP, 24 (last year: #2) -- 1-2, 6.23 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 28 K/15 BB, 8 HRA in 7 starts and 39 IP at AAA Omaha; 3-6, 4.69 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 94 K/26 BB, 13 HRA in 17 games (16 starts) and 94 IP at AA Wichita.

*** The potential many saw in Hochevar prior to his #1 overall pick by KC in 2006, along with his relatively young age are two of the flimsy strings still attaching him to the second spot on the list. As widely noted by analysts, the Royals took Hochevar ahead of several pitchers who are already paying dividends in their organizations at the major league level (Andrew Miller and Tim Lincecum, to name two). Hochevar has given the Royals a nice K rate but tendency to give up longballs at AA Wichita and not-as-good K-rate and even more longballs surrendered in his limited time at AAA Omaha. I don't think KC was expecting a WHIP upwards of 1.4, in AA and AAA, from Hochevar when they gave him MLB contract money last summer. I agreed with the move to Omaha mainly for motivational reasons when it was made this season, but he hasn't shown much, if any, signs of coming around in Omaha. Maybe his next start proves me wrong. If his struggles are due to injury, then the Royals need to get him fixed and back on the mound. If what we see is what we get from Hochevar, tho, it looks like another potential draft mistake for KC. I expect he'll start 2008 at Omaha unless his performance gets the boost it needs, or the Royals decide to bite the bullet and see what he can do in the majors.

3. Mike Moustakas, IF, 19 (last year: NR) -- hasn't taken the field for the organization yet.

***The biggest beneficiary of the middling success of Butler and Gordon in KC is Moustakas, who enters the organization as the hitting prospect with the most potential. Time will tell how far away Moustakas is from producing in a Royals uniform, as the question of if he can play shortstop in the minors hasn't even been answered yet. The good side of Moustakas' drafting were the comparisons to Alex Rodriguez (mostly by agent Scott Boras) and his gaudy offensive numbers in high school in California. The bad was the defensive uncertainty, as the Royals haven't proven too adept at finding a position for guys with an ambiguous defensive reputation (Butler and Justin Huber spring to mind). Moustakas will get a chance to find his legs at SS in Idaho Falls down the stretch and into the Pioneer League playoffs, then I figure will likely start the '08 season in IF or at A-ball in Burlington. As he turns 19 on Sept. 11, the Royals have a few years to see if Moustakas was worth the #2 pick.

4. Matt Wright, SP, 25 (last year: NR) -- 9-3, 3.69 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 84 K/37 BB, 15 HRA in 25 games (18 starts) and 124 1/3 IP at AAA Omaha.

***Perhaps Dayton Moore's best somewhat under-the-radar pickup going into the '07 season was Wright, who he saw perform at AAA for Atlanta before bringing him over as a minor-league free agent. Wright has responded by moving into the starting rotation and posting solid numbers in comparison with Buckner. His numbers above don't include his most recent start that ballooned his ERA with 6 HR allowed versus Albuquerque. He hadn't given up more than 2 in a game prior to that and, perhaps if manager Mike Jirschele realizes after, oh, 3 or 4 HR allowed that maybe Wright doesn't have his best stuff, it doesn't get that bad. It did, though. His next start will be telling to see how he rebounds. I can see a chance in September of this season for Wright if KC can find room on the 40-man. If not, he'll have a shot to compete for a rotation slot in spring training 2008. Either way, this year's numbers have been a nice bounce back from his 5+ ERA in 10 starts at Richmond last season.

5. Justin Huber, 1B/LF/RF, 25 (last year: #5) -- .283/.344/.527 (.871 OPS), 14 HR, 56 RBI, 16 BB, 37 K, 1/1 SB, 2 E in 60 games (226 AB) at AAA Omaha.

***Huber has hit well lately for Omaha but has continued to ricochet between first, left and, now right field in AAA. Injuries have once again taken their toll on a Huber season as hamstring problems have limited him to less than half of Omaha's games. He started slowly but has hit his stride over the last month or two following his most recent trip to the DL. At 25, his chances at earning a more permanent promotion to Kansas City likely lie in staying healthy and the team no longer bringing in guys like Emil Brown and Reggie Sanders to fill corner outfield spots. The acquisition of Ryan Shealy, Billy Butler's performance and Craig Brazell's pyrotechnics have also created a logjam at first that the Royals will need to clear up somewhat going into 2008. Huber's one guy I have trouble projecting for future use. After last season, I thought the team should use him as trade bait but he remains in Omaha. It's still hard to tell what Dayton Moore will want to do with Huber. He could be in KC to start 2008 or he could languish in Omaha another season. Not exactly a sparkling report for the #5 prospect.

6. Chris Lubanski, LF, 22 (last year: #6) -- .227/.291/.353 (.644 OPS), 3 HR, 16 RBI, 12 BB, 31 K, 0/1 SB, 3 E in 35 games (119 AB) at AAA Omaha; .295/.361/.490 (.851 OPS), 9 HR, 34 RBI, 28 BB, 43 K, 3/8 SB, 3 E in 64 games (241 AB) at AA Wichita.

***Lubanski was probably the prospect with the best chance of shooting upward on this list coming into 2007, but his solid if unspectacular numbers at Wichita and struggles at Omaha have kept him right where he was on the list last season. Lubanski is one of those players who will go on a streak to take their average from .260 to .295, then slump the average back to .240, then streak back to .275. His promotion to Omaha was something I also advocated as he wasn't going to do much more at AA and the time felt right to see what he could do in AAA. Lubanski responded with his usual slow start and then has heated up some over the last few weeks. He hasn't gotten on base well at Omaha and has shown only glimpses of power. The poor defensive reputation that proceeded him hasn't improved. My money's on the bet that he starts 2008 in Omaha with a chance to play his way up to KC, maybe with a Sept. '08 call up. Of course where he'll play in KC if his defense is poor is another question.

7. Mitch Maier, LF/CF, 25 (last year: #7) -- .280/.319/.403 (.722 OPS), 9 HR, 54 RBI, 28 BB, 73 K, 7/8 SB, 3 E in 123 games (479 AB) at AAA Omaha.

***It could be argued that Maier has moved ahead of Lubanski and Huber this season, but I left him where he was last season. His value has been in making contact and his durability has been excellent as he leads Omaha in games played. His defense also seems to be solid, but he doesn't get on base very well and has limited power. A .722 OPS isn't that great, even if you're hitting .280. He has the ability to get on streaks of multi-hit games and seems to have decent baserunning instincts but I have a hard time getting excited about his numbers and how they'll translate to the major-league level. I don't see that he can be more than a 4th OF in KC. We'll see if Dayton gives him a September call this year and a shot at the 25-man in spring training of next season.

8. Carlos Rosa, SP, 23 (last year: #11) -- 6-6, 4.39 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 67 K/40 BB, 7 HRA in 20 games (16 starts) and 92 1/3 IP at AA Wichita; 2-1, 0.39 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 15 K/3 BB, 0 HRA in 4 starts and 23 IP at A-Adv. Wilmington.

***Rosa started 2007 on fire at Wilmington, got moved up quickly to Wichita and then floundered somewhat before recovering in recent outings. Rosa put up some man-amongst-boys numbers in the Carolina League with 15 Ks in 23 IP and a WHIP of under 1. His numbers at AA have been a different story with walks giving him trouble and Texas League batters being a little better at making contact with his stuff. He does remain not even two years removed from arm surgery and, at 23, has shown flashes of potential. I figure he'll start 2008 in the Northwest Arkansas (what KC's AA team will become) rotation with a shot at moving to Omaha or KC later in the season if his performance bears up.

9. Julio Pimentel, SP, 22 (last year: NR) -- 10-4, 2.68 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 66 K/39 BB, 8 HRA in 24 games (19 starts) and 134 1/3 IP at A-Adv. Wilmington.

***Pimentel has also been the cream rising to the top of KC's prospect ranks this season with solid numbers at A-Advanced Wilmington. While Rowdy Hardy has gotten the attention, and rightly so, Pimentel has posted good numbers and is 3 years younger than soft-tossing Rowdy. Pimentel's K rate and his K/BB ratio haven't been anything great but he has shown some nice tools. He'll likely join Rosa in the AA rotation in 2008 and is likely to stick there if he can transfer his success to the next level.

10. Rowdy Hardy, SP, 25 (last year: NR) -- 14-4, 2.58 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 84 K/14 BB, 6 HRA in 24 games (20 starts) and 150 IP at A-Adv. Wilmington.

*** Rowdy has conjured Jamie Moyer comparisons with stuff that can't break glass but stuff that has vexed Carolina League batters of all stripes but those of Kinston, as the Indians are responsible for 3 of his 4 losses. 150 innings in, Hardy still has a WHIP of less than 1 with a 6-1 K/BB ratio and only 6 HR allowed, all while pitching at top speeds under 90 mph. With Pimentel and Rosa, he could make a daunting rotational punch in AA in 2008. His performance has been maybe the best story in the Royals' minors this season and I'd like to see it continue next season.

11. Joe Dickerson, LF/CF, 21 (last year: #16) -- .294/.359/.380 (.739 OPS), 3 HR, 42 RBI, 37 BB, 72 K, 25/38 SB, 5 E in 111 games (408 AB) at A Burlington.

*** Dickerson's latest development isn't a good one as he left Tuesday's game with a shoulder injury that may force him to miss the rest of the season. The injury would preclude him from a run at a .300 batting average. Dickerson has hit well for contact but strikes out nearly twice for every walk and has little more than doubles power, as his OPS is only in the .740 region. His speed has helped him steal bases and his defense seems to be solid but he has work to do on his game. If his shoulder is ready by spring '08, I figure he'll move up to Wilmington to see if his offense can improve.

12. Dan Cortes, SP, 20 (last year: #18) -- 5-8, 3.64 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 93 K/40 BB, 7 HRA in 20 starts and 99 IP at A-Adv. Wilmington.

*** Cortes has been another rising force in the Royals ranks this season as control problems that plagued him in 2006 have been addressed somewhat. The results haven't shone through in wins and losses but he has posted a decent WHIP and very nice K rate in the Carolina League. He's been able to keep his walks down to maintain a K/BB ratio of more than 2, so the command has improved. He'll either start 2008 in Wilmington or form an even more solid rotation (seemingly) in AA with Rosa, Pimentel and Hardy.

13. Blake Johnson, SP, 22 (last year: #15) -- 7-6, 3.46 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 72 K/28 BB, 6 HRA in 23 games (19 starts) and 117 IP at A-Adv. Wilmington.

*** Johnson has joined Pimentel to make the Elmer Dessens deal look like an overwhelming win in favor of KC as he has overcome some minor injury problems this season to keep pace with the rest of the rotation in posting good stats. His K/BB ratio and WHIP have been good and he has stayed away from opponents' power. He's another Wilmington/AA candidate for next season, and may hit both levels.

14. Mario Lisson, 3B, 23 (last year: NR) -- .276/.340/.400 (.740 OPS), 7 HR, 56 RBI, 37 BB, 89 K, 20/28 SB, 13 E in 112 games (410 AB) at A-Adv. Wilmington.

*** Lisson has been one of the hitters to benefit from injuries to pitchers in the organization. After being the best hitter on a dismal offensive squad in Burlington in 2006, Lisson has followed with consistent hitting and some speed in the Carolina League. His defense isn't reported to be great and he strikes out too much but he does have some pop in his bat and, like I noted, he has been consistent. He'll be playing third base at Northwest Arkansas in 2008 the way things look now.

15. Dan Duffy, SP, 18 (last year: NR) -- 2-1, 0.66 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 48 K/14 BB, 0 HRA in 8 games (7 starts) and 27 1/3 IP at Rookie AZL.

*** Duffy has been the most impressive of the Royals '07 pitching draftees with gaudy numbers in the Arizona Summer League. These numbers don't reflect a loss he took in his last start but a nearly 2-1 K/IP rate and better than 3-1 K/BB ratio thus far are good signs. Duffy was one of the more critically acclaimed choices by the Royals and signed quickly. At this point, it's hard to say where he'll start 2008, although Idaho Falls and A-ball in Burlington are both possibilities.

16. Geraldo Valentin, 2B/LF/RF, 25 (last year: NR) -- .296/.334/.370 (.704 OPS), 2 HR, 43 RBI, 20 BB, 39 K, 4/13 SB, 5 E in 94 games (368 AB) at AA Wichita.

*** Valentin has shown versatility and consistency in joining Mike Stodolka as the fuel for a struggling Wichita offense this season. Valentin has kept his batting average near .300 while staying away from strikeouts but his problems come in needing to draw more walks and not providing much pop. He stays fairly low on this list and I don't know how much potential he has to rise in the ranks, but he may start 2008 in Omaha and has earned the chance to do so.

17. Jeff Bianchi, 2B/SS, 21 (last year: #12) -- .240/.290/.312 (.602 OPS), 2 HR, 30 RBI, 22 BB, 65 K, 11/14 SB, 11 E in 84 games (321 AB) at A Burlington.

*** Bianchi has suffered a drop in the prospect ranks exceeded only by SP Tyler Lumsden (who dropped all the way off this season with bad numbers in Omaha). On a good note, Bianchi has been able to stay healthy this season after losing two great offensive seasons the last two years due to shoulder and back injuries. On the other hand, he got his shot in Burlington and hasn't done much of anything. The bright spot of his game has been 11/14 in stolen bases, but he hasn't hit and hasn't gotten on base. It's disappointing but he's still young and coming off shoulder surgery, so deserves a Mulligan here. He'll either start in Burlington or get a shot at Wilmington next season.

18. Jose Duarte, CF, 22 (last year: NR) -- .293/.361/.375 (.736 OPS), 1 HR, 37 RBI, 44 BB, 69 K, 31/40 SB, 1 E in 115 games (440 AB) at A-Adv. Wilmington.

*** As KC continues to stockpile speedy leadoff types in the low minors, Duarte is the leader of that pack with an outfield arm to match. Duarte forged a good defensive reputation by setting a Royals minor league record with 22 assists in 2006 in Burlington and has continued his fine play this season with 1 error. At the plate he hits for contact and can draw walks but has leadoff-type power with doubles being about the extent. He's a fairly sure bet to be the leadoff guy in AA next season.

19. Mario Santiago, SP, 21 (last year: NR) -- 5-8, 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 64 K/38 BB, 12 HRA in 23 games (17 starts) and 121 IP at A Burlington.

*** Santiago is another pitcher that has put himself on the map as others have battled injuries. Santiago has had some consistency problems but, at 21, has handled A-ball fairly well. Other than WHIP, his peripheral numbers haven't been that great. I have some suspicion the pitcher-friendly MWL may be contributing its share to Santiago's numbers but he'll get his shot at Carolina League ball in 2008. A few other pitchers -- Tyler Lumsden, Jason Godin, Tyler Chambliss and Matt Mitchell, to name a few -- could fit in this spot nicely, but Santiago has a couple years on all but Mitchell.

20. Brian McFall , RF, 23 (last year: NR) -- .275/.351/.473 (.824 OPS), 12 HR, 61 RBI, 38 BB, 85 K, 7/13 SB, 7 E in 101 games (364 AB) at A-Adv. Wilmington.

*** McFall continues to whiff a lot but has had a hot couple months at Wilmington to put him in the final spot of the list. He has improved his hitting for contact as the season has moved along and does have some pop in his bat as well as a decent arm in the outfield. He'll be in the AA outfield in 2008 and, if he can trim into his Ks, may make strides toward AAA next year. He may have the best combination of contact and power of any Royal minor leaguer lower than AA (although Clint Robinson may end up having something to say about that).

Honorable mention: P Tyler Lumsden (24, hasn't pitched well at Omaha, and has pitched that way consistently -- usually one good start for every three poor ones); SS Chris McConnell (21, another fairly lackluster offensive year at Wilmington/Burlington); 2B/3B Marc Maddox (24, started out well enough to earn promotion from Burlington but hasn't shown much yet in Wilmington); P Tyler Chambliss (22, pitched well in Burlington, has room to improve at Wilmington, although has shown flashes there, too); P Michael Penn (25, has battled injury but pitched well at Wilmington); CF Derrick Robinson (20, speedster needs to get on base more); RF Jamar Walton (21, scrap heap pickup has shown flashes at A-ball); P Jason Godin (23, pitched well in Burlington but struggled in Wilmington); IF Luis Castillo (23, injury shortened great season in IF in '06 but is trying to rebound at A-ball); CF Adrian Ortiz (20, 5th rounder has hit well thus far at IF, plus has the speed); 1B/DH Clint Robinson (22, best '07 offensive draftee thus far); LF/CF Patrick Norris (21, another '07 leadoff-style draftee in the Appy League, hasn't hit like Ortiz but has been productive on both sides of ball); CF David Lough (21, injury has hampered promising season at Appalachians); RF Wilson Tucker (22, started hot for B-Royals, has cooled since, several OF assists thus far as well); 1B/DH Jake Lane (22, on-base machine with some pop); P Joe Augustine (22, NDFA has been one of the best for B-Royals); P Anthony Bradley (22, like Augustine, an NDFA who has pitched well in the Appy League); 1B David Wood (22, another NDFA who has shone at AZL, but he's 22 and needs to move up quickly); 3B Fernando Cruz (17, touted 6th rounder hasn't produced at AZL); P Sam Runion (18, '07 2nd rounder hasn't shown much yet, but hope holds); P Matt Mitchell (18, '07 HS draftee has looked good with 53 K in 42 IP at AZL).

Incomplete grades: SP Luis Cota (last year #9; out with shoulder injury), SP Chris Nicoll (#10; struggled at Wilmington before hitting DL with quad injury), SP Brent Fisher (#14; shadow of former self before getting shut down for arm surgery), SP Matt Kniginyzky (#13; started year on shelf, went back after a couple starts), IF Angel Sanchez (lost whole season to TJS), IF Jason Taylor ('06 2nd rounder stayed home in Virginia this year to deal with "personal issues" from what I've read).